Windows Phone inching up, Blackberry crashing down; when will the two meet


If there is one way to add a shine to Windows Phone 7’s slow progress looking at Blackberry’s steep plunge is always very reliable.

While Windows Phone has continued to make slow progress in the US market, with around 2% market share in March and 1.7% of all subscribers, its rate of progress is not exciting anyone.

On the other hand, at least it is going up. According to Statcounter’s data over the last 5 months, Blackberry users are getting rid of their handsets as fast as possible, dropping about 1% market share every two months.

The question which arises if when these two lines, one ascending and one descending, will meet. Using a simple linear regression the cross over date is in about 160 days, or October 2012.

The irony of the date of course is that both Microsoft and RIM are expected to unveil devices running  new versions of their OS that month, in RIM’s care to turn things around, while in Microsoft’s case the aim would be to accelerate their growth. 

Clearly whoever executes best will end up taking the bronze medal.

See the Statcounter data here.

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