Microsoft Bing Predicts is now expanding into eSports predictions, starting with Dota 2’s The International 2016. Bing’s predictions are live now and you can check it out here. They will be predicting all the matches and they generated a static bracket ahead of the main event but will update their predictions daily as the tournament progresses.
What sets Dota 2 apart from your typical sport (or eSports) is that team rosters constantly change. Players shuffle every three months, and because of this, it is hard for any team to stay at the top of their game for a year or longer. Even a few months can make all the difference.
To account for the frequent lineup changes, we built a predictive model that tracks team performance as well as the career performance of individual players, based on in-game features (gold per minute, experience per minute, etc.) and external features (win rate, etc.). Players who are strong individually may not collaborate well, and while it is difficult to predict it before the players are paired together for the first time, our model computes changes in key statistics for each player and each team after a roster shuffle to quickly update predictions.
Read more about it here.