Analysts see Nokia selling 5.6 million Lumias in Q1 2013, making a loss

Reuters report that analysts have reached on consensus on Nokia’s Q1 2013 performance, and that they find it mildly encouraging, but hardly a blockbuster.

Analysts are currently expecting a slow but steady improvement in finances, also helped by good performance of their Nokia Siemens unit.

"Its visibility is really poor, and of course there’s still a possibility that the Windows strategy will fail. We don’t know," said Michael Schroder at Finnish investment group FIM.

"But the base case assumption now is that volumes will gradually come up as the geographical coverage distribution gets wider and product portfolio moves towards lower price points."

Analysts on average forecast first-quarter net sales to fall 11.8 percent from a year earlier to 6.48 billion euros, according to a Reuters poll, a more moderate decline than the 19.6 percent drop reported in the previous quarter.

Quarterly shipments of Lumia phones are seen at 5.6 million units, up from 4.4 million in the fourth quarter and 180% higher than the 2 million Lumias sold in Q1 2013. With Nokia Lumia handsets being around 80% of Windows Phones sold, this predicts around 7 million Windows Phones sold in Q1 2013.

Nokia is expected to lose 0.04 euros per share or around 150 million Euro, improved  from 0.08 euros per share a year earlier.

The company’s net cash position is expected to have fallen to 3.7 billion by end-March, down from 4.4 billion euros at the end of 2012.

FIM’s Schroder has a target of 4.00 euros on the shares. "When looking at sum of parts it’s significantly higher. But of course you have to have a discount, with all the uncertainty," he said.

Nokia surprised analysts with better than expected numbers and a small profit in Q4 2012. Lets hope they stick closer to that trend than the analysts’ prediction.