The Yankee Group has surveyed 16,000 US consumers over the last 12 months, and AllthingsD have posted some conclusions drawn from this research.
They note Android platform loyalty is relatively low, with one out of 4 Android users planning to switch to a new platform next time, while only 1/20 iPhone users plan to switch. Calling Android a “leaky bucket” they predicted the OS will not be able to grow its currently very large user base over the long term.
While the AllthingsD article makes scant mention of Windows Phone, the above graph drawn from the article tells an interesting story.
Based on a March 2013 survey, the Yankee Group predicts of the 8 platforms researched only 2 will gain market share – iOS and Windows Phone.
Android is seen as flat, and Blackberry as rapidly fading.
The Yankee group sees Windows Phones as gaining 7% of the installed base ie. 7/100 US phone owners will own a Windows Phone. This means the quarterly or monthly market share will likely be significantly higher.
While 7% in 4 years does not seem terribly impressive, I suspect it ignores the snow-ball effect – the more people see others using Windows Phones the more Windows Phones will be sold, and the more apps will be developed for the platform – a virtuous spiral which will hopefully see adoption reaching much more significant levels.