Microsoft has already started rolling out Windows 10 to Windows 7 and Windows 8.1 worldwide. As expected, the rollout process will have a massive load on CDNs worldwide. According to a new report from Dan Rayburn, an analyst with Frost & Sullivan, Windows 10 launch day will easily be the largest day/week of traffic ever on the Internet. “Unless Windows 10 is a complete flop and people don’t upgrade as quickly as Microsoft expects, Windows 10 is going to create some serious havoc with regards to the user experience. Expect to see some download times in the days, not hours, especially if any other content owners happen to have larger-than-expected traffic at the same time”, Dan added.
According to the report, Microsoft has reserved up to 40Tbps (terabits per second) capacity from multiple content delivery networks aka CDNs for the Windows 10 distribution process. The report states:
“Based on numbers I am hearing from multiple sources, Microsoft has reserved up to 40Tb/s per second of capacity from all of the third-party CDNs combined. To put that number in perspective, some of Apple’s recent largest live events on the web have peaked at 8Tb/s. Windows 10 is expected to be five times that and will easily be the largest day/week of traffic ever on the Internet. QoS problems are to be expected, especially since all of the CDNs will be rate limiting their delivery of the 3GB download and many ISPs will max out interconnection capacity in certain cities.”
Today is indeed a very big day for Microsoft and Windows. The company expects to get Windows 10 on 1 billion devices within the next three years, which is why it’s offering Windows 10 as a free upgrade to existing Windows 7 and Windows 8.1 users. Obviously, it won’t be very easy do deliver the OS to thousands of users — which is why Microsoft is delivering Windows 10 in waves – so don’t be surprised if you don’t get Windows 10 tomorrow.