Microsoft hopes for 15% smartphone market share in 2018, will attack low end

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It seems Microsoft is erring on the side of the realistic when presenting their Nokia deal to shareholders.

On page 22 of their Strategic Rationale presentation they reveal that they expect the smartphone market to grow to 1.7 billion handsets in 2018, and that they expect to have a 15% market share of this.

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This comes to about 255 million handsets per year, or 63.75 million per quarter, which would require a growth rate of around 12.7% per quarter, a number Nokia is currently comfortably exceeding, but which will of course become more difficult as sales increase.

Of particular interest is that Microsoft expects $45 billion in revenue from this volume, which gives us an ASP of $176.50 per handset, which is interestingly less than the $206.80 ASP of Nokia’s smartphone range in Q2 2013, which strongly suggests Microsoft will continue aggressively addressing the low-cost market, a particular are of success for Windows Phone this year.

Microsoft however also expects the deal to drive inefficiencies from the system, saving money all along the way, and expects to derive between $2.3 or $4.5 billion in profit from the deal.

Do our readers think Microsoft is being realistic or unambitious? Let us know below.

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