iSuppli predicts eventual Windows Phone victory over iPhone

Smartphone Ranking

iSuppli has joined a bevy of analysts predicting that Windows Phone will eventually overtake the iPhone in total shipments, largely on the weight of Nokia’s commitment to the OS.

The company is predicting Windows Phone will take 9% of the smartphone market in 2012, which predicts sales of around 50 million handsets.  This market share is expected to rise to 16.7% in 3 years time, overtaking the iPhone, with 16.6% of the market.

The one product which has given iSuppi confidence that Nokia and Windows Phone can execute was the Nokia Lumia 900, which won several best of CES 2012 awards this year.

“One of the hottest new products unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show was the Lumia 900, a Windows Phone-based smartphone sporting a flashy set of features that makes it competitive with the best alternatives offered by the Android camp,” said Wayne Lam, senior analyst for wireless communications at IHS. “This hot product represents Nokia’s first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015.”

They note Nokia’s departure from developing for Europe first and then trying to release the handset in US, as well as improved relationships with Rogers, Telus, AT&T and T-Mobile are concrete examples of Nokia executing on this strategy.

“The introduction of the Lumia 900 shows that Nokia believes the road back to smartphone dominance runs through North America,” said Francis Sideco, senior principal analyst for consumer and communications at IHS. “And the way to win North America is through its operator channels.”

LTE, which will also only roll out in several years time in Europe, is another example of Nokia serving the US market directly.

“In the past, Nokia always introduced new technologies in its home European market first,” Sideco said. “However, for the Lumia 900—Nokia’s first LTE phone—the company initially is rolling it out in North America. This demonstrates Nokia’s commitment to re-enter the region.”

iSuppli expects Nokia to dominate the Windows Phone world, selling 50% of Windows Phones in 2012 and 62 percent in 2013 at which point their share will begin to decline in 2014, as other companies increase their sales of Windows Phone products.

Nokia will drive the development and expansion of the Windows Phone market, opening up opportunities for other players, Lam said. “Because of Nokia’s support, apps developers will eagerly shore up the Windows platform. This will cause other makers of Windows Phone devices, such as Samsung and HTC, to offer more products supporting the OS—further expanding the market.”

Read the full report at iSuppli here.

It seems nearly everything is lined up for Windows Phone success.  Now all we need are buyers…

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