The news of Windows Phone overtaking iOS in Italy has resonated quite well around the blogosphere, causing many Apple-loving journos to go on the defensive, and of course blaming most of Windows Phone’s success on economic issues in Italy.
That point of view ignores the fact that Windows Phone’s rise is a Europe-wide phenomena, and looking at Kantar’s numbers it looks very much like one of Europe’s strongest economies, Germany, will be the next to see Windows Phone overtake iOS.
The above graph has two years of Kantar smartphone market share numbers in Germany, and very clearly shows the very seasonal nature of iOS’s sales in Germany, with peaks in December and troughs in August
In contrast Windows Phone is much less seasonal, with the 2012 dip not caused by the anticipation of new devices, but by the clumsy switch from WP7 to WP8, and its ascent also pretty steady over the last year.
Of course Windows Phone will not be overtaking iOS in the next 6 months, but it is pretty likely that Q2 and Q3 of 2014 will see Windows Phone clearly ahead of iOS in Germany, and possible Europe-wide.
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