While some parts of the PC market, like the 2:1 form factor, is surging, the overall traditional PC/laptop market continues to fades, and now, in the IDC’s latest projection, they predicted that recovery will remain elusive all the way into 2018.
The IDC expects worldwide PC shipments continue to decline by 7.3% year over year in 2016 followed by progressively smaller declines through 2017 followed by stable volume in 2018. The 7.6% decline in 2016 is 2% worse than earlier predicted as the IDC notes conditions have been weaker than expected. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 (1Q16) came in at -12.5%, just below IDC’s forecast of -11.3%, and inhibitors such as weak currencies, depressed commodity prices, political uncertainty, and delayed projects continue to constrain shipments.
The decline in growth rates for devices such as phones and tablets has not resulted in renewed interest in PCs and the financial pressure on consumers across regions continue to be an issue.
In addition the IDC believes the free Windows 10 upgrade may have delayed purchases further, while a large share of enterprises are still evaluating Windows 10.
However when combining detachable tablets with PCs, the market is projected to decline by just over 2 percent in 2016 with small positive growth in later years, though still falling well short of peak shipments.
“The latest update reflects continuing pressure on PC shipments, but does not significantly change the factors driving the market,” saidLoren Loverde, vice president, Worldwide Tracker Forecasting and PC research. “In addition, we have now had four consecutive quarters of double-digit volume declines. This type of prolonged slump is unprecedented, and lowers the bar for some improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the PC market still faces some persistent challenges, and for now, improvement continues to mean slower declines.”
“Although inventory has improved in some markets, channels remain extremely conservative,” said Jay Chou, research manager, Worldwide PC Tracker, “The economic and competitive pressures are particularly affecting the consumer segment, which is projected to see another year of double-digit declines in 2016, and decline throughout the forecast. In contrast, commercial shipments are projected to decline just 4.4% in 2016 and see slightly positive growth for the next few years.”