Gartner has long been predicting Windows Phone success, and the last quarterâ€™s hiccup in sales, with Nokia only shipping 3.7 million Lumias, has not caused them to waver much in their support.
FIercemobile reports that Gartner still predicts that Windows Phone should take the number three position in the smartphone market, surpassing Research in Motion’s BlackBerry by 2013 or 2014, and matching Apple’s iPhone market share by 2015.
David Cearley, vice president and fellow at Gartner, however still predicted Googleâ€™s Android to be in the lead, and also expected Windows 8 tablets to be behind Android and iOS in 2015.
By 2015, media tablet shipments will reach around 50 percent of laptop shipments and Windows 8 will likely be in third place behind Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS operating systems, Cearley said.
"We expect Windows 8 will remain relatively niche and more attractive to organizations than individual consumers. Developers of corporate applications should consider Windows tablet as a target device in 2013," he said.
Microsoft is of course working hard to prove Cearley right on phones and wrong on tablets, with the result in many ways intertwined. If Windows 8 does well Windows Phone 8 may also benefit from the free advertising which comes from the familiar interface. If it does poorly it would be a clear rejection by consumers of the stark Metro interface.
We will likely know the trajectory of both projects in less than 6 months.