Windows Phone has been struggling for around 2 years to hit the mass market, and there has been various excuses for its lack of success.
Bernstein Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, however, think they have the answer. Their research found consumers just did not like the product, despite Microsoftâ€™s best efforts.
â€œOur research shows that for many years, poor sales of Windows-based phones stem from a deep and stable lack of consumer interest for the product,â€ Ferragu wrote. â€œDespite numerous and repeated efforts of manufacturers (Nokia, but also Samsung and HTCand Operators to develop an alternative to Android and Apple based on Windows, and despite the launch of numerous phones based on Windows with strong features, reviews and marketing support, the operating system remains cornered to less than 5% market share in smartphones.â€
He did not see much hope of this changing either, noting:
â€œThe lack of consumer interest for Windows-based phones has been very consistent in marketing surveys we have carried out across the globe over the last several years. The situation of Windows in mobile phones is now very unlikely to revert. Smartphone Operating Systems benefit from ecosystem dynamics in terms of application ecosystem but most importantly consumer advocacy and adoption.â€
He did not believe Microsoft would ever catch up in mobile due to these issues, and felt this doomed Nokiaâ€™s future, and recommended a short position for speculators and investors.
â€œNokiaâ€™s stock almost doubled since 2Q results, with in our view no visible improvement in fundamentals,â€he wrote. â€œWe believe the time is therefore right to initiate a short position in Nokia, with Nokia World next week and a risk of a warning in September.â€
He statement of course ignores places like Finland, where Windows Phone has certainly grabbed much more than 5% of the market, indicating that antipathy to the mobile OS is not a universal certainty. There is certainly a case however to be made that Apple (and by extension Androidâ€™s)cartoon-like user interface tugs more directly at the heart strings of consumers than Microsoftâ€™s very sophisticated and more abstract Modern UI.
Do our readers think Microsoft and Nokia has a real problem? Let us know below.