Bad News For Microsoft, IDC Lowers PC Shipments Outlook For 2015

IDC today released their latest report that worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -4.9% in 2015, a drop from the previous forecast of -3.3%. One good news for Microsoft is that the growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were raised slightly.

Fourth quarter 2014 (4Q14) results were 1.7% ahead of forecast, but economic and product changes will create a head wind in the short term. Total 2015 volume is projected at 293.1 million PCs, slipping a little further to 291.4 million in 2019. In value terms, the PC market reached US$201 billion in 2014, a decline of -0.8%, and is expected to fall another -6.9% in 2015 with smaller declines in subsequent years bringing the total to US$175 billion by 2019.

As Intel lowered its revenue estimates earlier today citing slow PC growth in 2015, IDC also reports that PC volumes in mature regions are expected to drop by -5.1% in 2015 with incremental declines thereafter. IDC expects that Windows 10 to be well received and it will also provide a better experience with mouse and keyboard.

“The gains in mature regions for 2014 helped stabilize the market, but any opportunity for long-term growth depends on reviving growth in emerging regions, and that seems unlikely with the shift toward mobile devices,” said Loren Loverde, Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers. “Even including 2-in-1 systems would only boost the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for total PC shipments through 2019 from -1.1% to 0.5%. Vendors can focus on growth segments of the PC market such as AIO, slim and convertible PCs, or consolidate share, but pressure on pricing and from competing devices will continue to make it a challenging market.”

PC Shipments by Region and Product Category (Shipments in millions)

RegionProduct Category

2014

2015*

2019*

Emerging MarketsDesktop PC

80.4

76.8

75.2

Emerging MarketsPortable PC

83.2

79.1

83.7

Emerging MarketsTotal PC

163.7

156.0

159.0

Mature MarketsDesktop PC

53.4

48.7

45.8

Mature MarketsPortable PC

91.1

88.4

86.7

Mature MarketsTotal PC

144.5

137.1

132.5

WorldwideDesktop PC

133.8

125.5

121.0

WorldwidePortable PC

174.3

167.5

170.4

WorldwideTotal PC

308.1

293.1

291.4

Source: IDC

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