Last year we saw a number of analysts predict Windows Phone would eventually overtake iPhone and take second place in the market share battle after Android.
While the analysts did not admit this, the claim seems largely to be based on the assumption that Nokia would be able to convert 100% of their Symbian users to Windows Phone 7.
However much like how Microsoft lost most of their Windows Mobile user base to the Android and iPhone, Symbian users are also rapidly converting to Android, leaving those analyst predictions looking pretty uninformed.
Now iSuppli and IDC have modified their predictions, and no longer predict a second place for Windows Phone by 2015.
IHS senior analyst in wireless communications Wayne Lam says the firm has "ratcheted back" its claims, now predicting Windows Phone will land in third position, behind iOS and Android.
Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team, says IDC has only slightly lowered its market share expectations to 20.1%, but has also erased the difference separating it from iOS, predicting WP7 to be "pretty much statistically tied with Apple" by 2016.
The analysts blame the reduced expectations on the success of the Bring Your Own Device model, which sees uses bringing their own iPhone or Android phone to work, instead of having a device like a Blackberry or Windows Phone imposed on them.
â€œWe can definitely say that it’s no longer a top-down decision. We’ve gone to a new era in mobility, and especially enterprise mobility, where the end user is definitely having a voice," Lam said.
The analysts still however see the possibility of consumer success for Windows Phone, with Llamas pointed to the Lumia 900, which he says is a strong consumer smartphone with an interface and user experience that are comparable to those of the iPhone or many Android devices.
Read more at IDG News here.
Given the documented slow growth of Windows Phone so far, the lofty predictions of the analysts of 30-40 million Windows Phones sold in 2012 seem rather unrealistic. Do our readers agree? Let us know below.