Analyst: Google going Motorola exclusive would doom Android, boost Windows Phone


Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster has weighed in on the GooMoto issue, and found that if Google closes of Android and go the Apple route of doing both the hardware and software, it would have a pretty disastrous effect on Google’s market share, with the OS dropping from more than 40% to around 20% market share by 2015.

Conversely, in that scenario, while Blackberry and Symbian would continue to decline, the ‘Other’ category, which consists mainly of Windows Phone, would see strong growth, climbing to 47% market share in 2015.

Because of this Munster thinks the scenario is pretty unlikely, and expects Google to spin of the company shortly while hanging onto the patents.

“As a strategic move, we believe buying the entirety of Motorola for its patents was one of the few ways for Google to acquire meaningful IP without being outbid by Apple/Microsoft who have more capital to make aggressive bids to keep patents away from Google. We believe the potential for Apple/Microsoft to bid on Motorola is low given the risk that if Google bows out, Apple/Google would need to deal with breaking up the acquisition or going through with it and owning a business of which it likely wants no part.” – Munster of Piper Jaffray

Here’s hoping Google continues to be stupid then.