AdDuplex data suggests the 80 million Windows Phone installed base number is wrong

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AdDuplex has attempted to get an accurate view of the distribution of Windows Phone users worldwide, using a few apps which are distributed equally globally, and by eliminated apps which were strong only regionally and would therefore skew the results.

Above is their current best attempt, though they said they would continue to work to refine the data.

The numbers show USA is still the strongest Windows Phone market, followed by India and Brazil, and surprisingly Russia before Italy.

The percentages allow us to attempt to calculate the size of the Windows Phone market.  According to Comscore there are about 5.75 million Windows Phone users in USA, which is 11% of AdDuplex’s numbers, allowing us to calculate that there are around 52 million Windows Phone users.

Using the same ratio we can calculate that UK’s 3.7% of the Windows Phone market equals 1.93 million Windows Phone users, which agrees well with the 2.2 million Windows Phone users estimated by eMarketer here. If we use the 2.2 million as the authoritative number, we get around 60 million Windows Phone users.

Similarly Finland’s 3.0% equates to 1.56 million users, which is not far off the 1 million total sales recently announced by Nokia in March 2014 in the country.

Of course the numbers will never be exact, with AdDuplex’s percentages from July and Comscore’s numbers from May 2014. It does however give us a ballpark figure which is far off the 80 million number which has recently been doing the rounds, which appears to be based on a Mobizen infographic with no real sources.

Does the distribution of Windows Phone surprise our readers? Let us know below.

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