ABI Research: “Windows Phone 7… will have to find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than 7% of the market by 2016.”

ABIresearch-Logo-with-tagli_highresWhile we have seen some pretty optimistic assessments from analysts on the future of Windows Phone 7, ABI Research begs to differ.

The company agrees pretty much with IDC in most areas, except when it comes to Windows Phone 7.

 IDC 2015ABI Research 2016
Android45.4%45%
IOS15.3%19%
Blackberry13.7%14%
Windows Phone 720.9%7%
Other4.6% 
Bada 10%

ABI senior analyst Michael Morgan notes:

“Android, Bada and BlackBerry have a great opportunity to fill the vacuum being left by the disappearance of the Symbian OS within the next two years,”

“RIM’s slight loss of share doesn’t mean falling shipments,” says Vice President Kevin Burden. “RIM has found its niche, but the consumer market will grow faster than its portion of it.”

On Windows Phone 7 and Samsung’s Bada Morgan said. “With 4 million units shipped in 2010 (amounting to a 1.5% market share), Bada has taken off very well, very fast,”

“Bada may reach 10% market share by 2016. Windows Phone 7, on the other hand, which shipped in two million handsets in Q4 2010, will have to find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than 7% of the market by 2016.”

The analyst group is clearly predicting a complete collapse of Nokia’s smartphone market share, the reasons which the company is clearly not addressing, but which centres around pessimism regarding Windows Phone 7.

We are no analysts, but with no ecosystem around Bada and with Blackberry not a particularly loved operating system, I suspect both operating systems are much more likely to not even see the back end of 2015.

Is ABI Research too pessimistic about Windows phone 7 of IDC too positive? Let us know below.

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