The company agrees pretty much with IDC in most areas, except when it comes to Windows Phone 7.
|IDC 2015||ABI Research 2016|
|Windows Phone 7||20.9%||7%|
ABI senior analyst Michael Morgan notes:
â€œAndroid, Bada and BlackBerry have a great opportunity to fill the vacuum being left by the disappearance of the Symbian OS within the next two years,â€
â€œRIMâ€™s slight loss of share doesnâ€™t mean falling shipments,â€ says Vice President Kevin Burden. â€œRIM has found its niche, but the consumer market will grow faster than its portion of it.â€
On Windows Phone 7 and Samsungâ€™s Bada Morgan said. â€œWith 4 million units shipped in 2010 (amounting to a 1.5% market share), Bada has taken off very well, very fast,â€
â€œBada may reach 10% market share by 2016. Windows Phone 7, on the other hand, which shipped in two million handsets in Q4 2010, will have to find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than 7% of the market by 2016.â€
The analyst group is clearly predicting a complete collapse of Nokiaâ€™s smartphone market share, the reasons which the company is clearly not addressing, but which centres around pessimism regarding Windows Phone 7.
We are no analysts, but with no ecosystem around Bada and with Blackberry not a particularly loved operating system, I suspect both operating systems are much more likely to not even see the back end of 2015.
Is ABI Research too pessimistic about Windows phone 7 of IDC too positive? Let us know below.