A look back at our 2013 predictions

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At the start of every year we make a set of predictions for the course of the next 12 months, and we also look at our performance in predicting the previous 12.

In this article we will look at how well we did 12 months ago.

 

Winter 2012/13

Windows Phone 8 bug fixes will continue to roll out.

Well, that’s an easy one.

DLNA will come to Nokia Windows Phone 8 handsets

This did in fact arrive in Q1 2013.

Windows Phone 7.8 will roll out

This was also spot on, but I think the speed and scale was rather disappointing.

Spring 2013

Windows Phone will come to Sprint

This happened about a quarter later than predicted.

Pandora is released for Windows Phone

This was spot-on.

Windows Phone gets a major update which includes a notification centre, VPN support and SkyDrive music locker.

This was clearly VERY widely off the mark.

Summer 2013

New, high quality non-casual games are announced at E3

Halo Spartan Assault was announced around E3 and demoed there.

Nokia becomes profitable.  HTC becomes loss-making.

Both of these happened, though a quarter later than predicted.

Nokia releases a 808 Pureview-type Windows Phone and another range of low-end Windows Phones.

The Nokia Lumia 1020 had to wait one more quarter, and of course the Nokia Lumia 520 was released in Q2, so right prediction, wrong timing.

Autumn 2013

Windows Phone 9 is announced

This was of course way off, but we did get more information about Windows Phone 8 Update 3.

The next generation of Windows Phone handsets start leaking

If we count the Nokia Lumia 525 and the Nokia Lumia 1520, then certainly yes.

Instagram comes to Windows Phone, but its popularity has already started fading. In general however apps only take 6 months rather than 12 months to make the jump to Windows Phone.

Again one quarter out, so maybe a half mark?

Windows Phone hits 250,000 apps

Close, but the slow-down in the growth of the Windows Phone Store was not anticipated.

Winter 2013

New Windows Phone 9 handsets are released, supports 1080P

Half a mark for the 1080P result?

This time Windows Phone 8 handsets actually get an update to the new OS.

Windows Phone handsets are of course being widely upgraded to WP 8 Update 3.

Surface 2 gets released.

Yes.

Microsoft Surface Phone released

No, but does buying Nokia’s handset division count?

Xbox 720 released

Yes.

BBC iPlayer released

Yes, but much earlier and of much less quality.

Windows Phone market share hits 10% or around 30 million per quarter.

Not even close, but we did certainly see some significant growth.

So out of 20 predictions, 5 were completely wrong, 6 were half wrong (mainly due to timing) and 9 were 100% right.

Do our readers think we have a passing mark? Many readers left their own predictions in our last comment thread.  Did they come true? Let us know below.

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